“Obesity is a global problem and not one that can be solved through institutional exercise programs. More than half the Australian, Canadian and of course the American populations are overweight. Do we really think we are going to get them all into the gym every week?

While there is still a consensus that inactivity rather than overeating is responsible for the current obesity epidemic, the terms of the debate are shifting. Exercise as most people understand it is no longer the main focus. It is activity that matters, While the difference may seem a matter of mere semantics, in practice it is the crucial distinction between going somewhere special to get and keep fit. Until you live a life that does it for you until you die.

“We have lost so much physical activity from our everyday lives that an hour or two in the gym a week can’t possibly compensate. I don’t know of a single society in the world where the gym or equivalent has made any difference to a national obesity problem.”

Institutionalized exercise is rather like crash dieting: it is a means to an end that can rarely be sustained. Gym attendance relies on discipline and a concomitant belief that somehow the more you spend financially, the more you will expend calorie wise. Lose the discipline or re-evaluate the cost/ benefit, and your membership lapses.

While exercise is clearly vital, there is an absurdity about the way we try to do it: driving to the gym to get on a treadmill or exercise bike; standing on the escalator on the way to a step aerobics class. And then going home to what they euphemistically call “compensatory behavior” – having a session in front of the telly, or eating a sugary snack.

Clearly, a core of devotees do demonstrate that the gym can be a very effective way to build muscle, lose fat and increase stamina. But they are in the minority. A number of consumer surveys have put the gym drop-out rate at more than 80% in the first eight weeks of signing up. Some figures are more optimistic, showing that 60% of gym members are still paying their subscriptions after a year. But while they may be paying up, are they still turning up?

Payment of the membership fee clearly does not always equate with gym attendance. A recent survey identified gym subscriptions as typical of the direct debit payments that ex-users forget to cancel. Then there are those who keep paying because, well, tomorrow is another day.

Membership does not determine regularity of attendance, either. A survey has found that one in five gym members goes just once a month or less. This equates to 100 calories a week. You could burn up more energy than that doing some gardening every weekend or taking a brisk 20-minute walk every week for a month.

A number of consumer surveys have put the gym drop-out rate at more than 80% in the first eight weeks of signing up.